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GfK: Slight retail growth in Germany thanks to online sales, but stationary sales fall |
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GfK forecasts a slight overall increase in Germany's retail turnover for 2014. Online retail is entirely responsible for this growth, as stationary retail is predicted to fall for the first time. Even so, the current study on regional stationary retail shows there are still many attractive and successful retail regions and locations in Germany.
The study "GfK Retail Turnover 2014" reflects regional stationary retail turnover generated at the point of sale for all of Germany's districts and municipalities with more than 10,000 inhabitants. According to the study, Germany's stationary retail turnover in 2014 will reach €408 bil. This equates to a nominal decrease of one percentage point from the previous year's value. By contrast, GfK retail experts anticipate that online sales will continue to rise, resulting in an overall nominal increase in 2014 retail turnover amounting to 1.2 percent. However, expected price increases will result in a lower actual growth rate.
"The forecasted retail turnover reflects changing consumer behavior," explains GfK market data expert Simone Baecker-Neuchl. "More than ever before, this year's increases in online turnover will be at the expense of stationary turnover. The evolution of retail is in full gear and retailers must develop sound, forward-looking concepts for their online and offline sales channels. The online boom also offers opportunities to stationary retail. But small retailers in particular face significant challenges. It's now especially vital that retailers position their stores at the right locations and offer consumers an appealing shopping experience and good service."
Regional distribution of turnover in Germany
Germany's most populated districts continue to generate the most turnover. Metropolitan areas such as Berlin, Hamburg and Munich top the turnover rankings:
| rank |
urban district (UD) / rural district (RD) |
inhabitants |
|
share in ‰ of total stationary retail turnover |
| 1 |
Berlin UD |
3,375,222 |
17,489.6 |
42,867 |
| 2 |
Hamburg UD |
1,734,272 |
10,748.5 |
26,344 |
| 3 |
Munich UD |
1,388,308 |
10,323.4 |
25,302 |
| 4 |
Cologne UD |
1,024,373 |
6,936.4 |
17,001 |
| 5 |
Hannover RD |
1,112,675 |
6,445.9 |
15,799 |
| 6 |
Düsseldorf UD |
593,682 |
4,242.7 |
10,399 |
| 7 |
Frankfurt am Main UD |
687,775 |
4,215.8 |
10,333 |
| 8 |
Stuttgart UD |
597,939 |
4,116.2 |
10,089 |
| 9 |
Nuremberg UD |
495,121 |
3,477.0 |
8,522 |
| 10 |
Essen UD |
566,862 |
3,459.9 |
8,480 |
source: GfK Retail Turnover Germany 2014;
UD = urban district; RD = rural district
The top 10 districts together comprise 17.5 percent of Germany's total stationary retail turnover. Germany's metropolitan areas offer retailers good market presence, demand and turnover, but also robust competition. Given Germany's saturated market, select mid-sized cities continue to grow in importance as sites of interest to expansion-minded retailers. Mid-sized cities that offer a wide range of services for the surrounding area enjoy per-capita turnover volumes twice that of the national average.
| rank by index per capita |
urban district (UD) / rural district (RD) |
inhabitants |
retail turnover in mil. € |
retail turnover index
per inhabitant (100 = national average) |
| 1 |
Straubing UD |
45,099 |
492.0 |
215.3 |
| 2 |
Passau UD |
49,038 |
523.6 |
210.7 |
| 3 |
Weiden i.d.OPf. UD |
41,684 |
436.1 |
206.5 |
| 4 |
Schweinfurt UD |
52,098 |
526.2 |
199.3 |
| 5 |
Rosenheim UD |
59,935 |
590.6 |
194.5 |
| 6 |
Würzburg UD |
124,577 |
1.202.8 |
190.6 |
| 7 |
Trier UD |
106,544 |
981.8 |
181.9 |
| 8 |
Kempten (Allgäu) UD |
64,625 |
589.2 |
179.9 |
| 9 |
Memmingen UD |
41,551 |
375.0 |
178.1 |
| 10 |
Landshut UD |
65,322 |
587.0 |
177.4 |
source: GfK Retail Turnover Germany 2014;
UD = urban district; RD = rural district
Note: The per inhabitant values comprise a purely mathematical benchmark, because retail at these respective locations is by no means driven only by local inhabitants. Even so, insight into the retail drawing power of the regions in question can be gained by correlating retail turnover with population size.
About the study
GfK Retail Turnover reveals the regional distribution of stationary retail turnover. In contrast to GfK Purchasing Power, which is calculated at consumers’ places of residence, GfK Retail Turnover is calculated at the point of sale. GfK Retail Turnover is defined as the turnover of the retail trade, excluding motor vehicle and fuel sales as well as mail-order retail, but including retail-related turnover from bakeries, confectionaries and butchers.
GfK annually calculates GfK Retail Turnover for every regional level as a total sum, per inhabitant in euros and as an index (German average = 100). These calculations are carried out for all of Germany's urban and rural districts, postcodes and municipalities with more than 10,000 inhabitants.
The study "GfK Retail Turnover" is also available for many other European countries.
Additional information can be found at www.gfk.com/marketdata.
Illustrations
Print-quality illustrations can be found at www.gfk.com/Documents/Press-Releases/2014/rt2014.zip.
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GfK is the trusted source of relevant market and consumer information that enables its clients to make smarter decisions. More than 13,000 market research experts combine their passion with GfK's 80 years of data science experience. This allows GfK to deliver vital global insights matched with local market intelligence from more than 100 countries. By using innovative technologies and data sciences, GfK turns big data into smart data, enabling its clients to improve their competitive edge and enrich consumers' experiences and choices.
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GfK GeoMarketing GmbH
Werner-von-Siemens-Str. 9, Gebäude 6508, 76646 Bruchsal, Germany
Managing director: Wolfram Scholz
Commercial register Mannheim, HRB 250872
www.gfk-geomarketing.com
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Cornelia Lichtner
Public relations
+49 7251 9295 270
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